‘They hit the Russian economy hard, but also affect – although on a smaller scale – the situation in a number of European countries, including Poland’, says Dr Maciej Woźniak from the Faculty of Management about the sanctions imposed on Russia after the military aggression on Ukraine.
On February 24, the security status quo in Europe crumbled. Has the economy also taken a knock as a result of these perturbations?
Dr Maciej Woźniak: I’d say that problems have already come up with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, the Russian attack on Ukraine has additionally intensified the adverse processes. One of the chief issues in the world economy right now is supply chains – one product comprises elements manufactured in different countries, and only one of them is responsible for putting the pieces together. As a result of the recurrent lockdowns in China, the parts frequently never got to Europe. At the same time, the war also disrupted transit between China, other Asian countries, and Europe, which, in addition to the sea route, ran on land through Ukraine.
The current situation may force some companies to reinvent their model of operation. Having realised the possibility of another war or pandemic, enterprises try to concentrate the production in a reduced number of countries or in those that lie close to one another, so that the supply chain shortens as much as possible – today, economists begin to talk about the deglobalisation of economy.
Can this result in the pauperisation of the affected regions and bring about, for example, another migration crisis?
It is a serious threat, especially considering the soaring prices of cereals that used to be exported to North Africa from Russia or Ukraine. Let me remind you that one of the reasons for the so-called “Arab Spring” was the rocketing prices of food. As a consequence, we’ve seen a massive influx of people to Europe from that part of the world. Today, economists also point their fingers at the increase in food prices in Latin America. Therefore, the outlook is rather bleak.
‘One of the reasons for the so-called “Arab Spring” was the rocketing prices of food. As a consequence, we’ve seen a massive influx of people to Europe from that part of the world’, Dr Maciej Woźniak says; source: Dreamstime
‘We’re looking at actions that aim to release oil reserves even by countries such as Iran or Venezuela, which would increase the oil supply and cause the prices to fall’, Dr Maciej Woźniak says; source: Dreamstime
‘In Poland, the most severe ramifications affected transport companies and the processing industry, for which the Russian market is practically closed now’, Dr Maciej Woźniak says; source: Dreamstime