How to design climate-resilient investments?

Global warming leads to increasingly more frequent extreme weather conditions, such as droughts and torrential rains, which also occur in our part of Europe. A team of researchers from AGH University and the Technical University of Košice is currently working on new methods of environmental impact assessment to better prepare upcoming investments for the challenges ahead. Read our conversation with Dr Slávka Gałaś from the Faculty of Geology, Geophysics, and Environmental Protection, the project's coordinator.

Piotr Włodarczyk (AGH University Centre for Communication and Marketing): How does climate change affect us in Poland and Slovakia and what climate change effects should we be prepared for in the future?

Dr Slávka Gałaś: Over the last few decades, we have observed some changes in temperature and precipitation trends here in Poland. The number of scorching days and tropical nights has increased significantly, and the average annual sum of precipitation has grown. The increase in the latter results mainly from a higher number of days with extreme precipitation with an insignificant increase in the total number of rainy days.

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 project continuous growth of the average annual temperature – respectively by 1.3°C and 2.6–4.5°C in case of the second variant, which entails a more intense character of the process. Changes in precipitation will be most noticeable in the north-eastern part of the country.

Temperatures will also rise in Slovakia, with an increase of nearly 2.0–3.0°C by 2050. The number of tropical (30–35°C) and super tropical (more than 35°C) days is expected to increase considerably, especially in the warmest regions. Rainfall patterns will become more irregular, and the periods of drought will intertwine with intense rainfall. Due to higher air temperature and humidity, strong and severe thunderstorms can be more frequent.

Effective adaptation and mitigation strategies will be crucial to managing these changes and minimising their negative effects on society’s health, economy, and environment. When designing new investments, one should strive for reaching a balance between social, environmental, and economical needs.

What aspects of adaptation to climate change should we consider when thinking about new investments in this part of Europe?

In this project, our main focus is on undertakings in water management and mining. When planning investments in water management, such as the construction of retention reservoirs, protection and restoration of wetlands, we should prioritise water retention. Its aim is to limit the effects of droughts, secure water resources in times of scarcity, and reduce the risk of flooding. Another important element is to minimise groundwater and surface water pollution by developing a modern infrastructure for wastewater treatment. In urbanised areas, rainwater management is of particular importance in the context of the growing frequency of extreme rainfall and local flooding.

As far as the mining sector is concerned, efforts should be focused mainly on reducing the impact of its activities on the environment, including on the improvement of the energy efficiency in mining processes. It is also important to take into account the impact of extreme weather phenomena on the extraction, i.e. rainfalls, floods, extreme temperatures, which pose serious threat to the equipment and infrastructure.

How will the project improve the resilience of investments to the whims of weather that are to come?

We would like to deliver new guidelines for public administration, business, and experts responsible for preparing project documentation and participating in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) processes. The legally required procedures are best suited for the implementation of tools to solve problems related to the climate resilience of new investments. The assessment methods we are developing will aim to provide a complex answer to the question whether a given project or investment may be significantly affected by the detrimental effects of climate change. For it to happen, we need to identify climate risks, evaluate climate change scenarios for a given area, and assess the project's susceptibility to anticipated future changes. A relevant aspect in the evaluation of investments and projects should also be seeking possible alternatives and solutions to improve their climate resilience. It is also important to ask questions about the way to monitor the unfavourable effects of climate change on investments and projects and the effectiveness of evaluation of the adaptation measures.